A new report shows that the public’s perception of crime rising nationwide has remained unchanged on average for nearly 20 years, despite a sharp decline in most types of crime.
The Council on Criminal Justice said 69% of Americans believed crime was increasing across the country from 2005 to 2024, even though the total crime rate — combining violent and property offenses — was nearly cut in half.
The Council on Criminal Justice said 35% of Americans were afraid to walk alone at night, the same percentage as in 1968.
The nonprofit think tank gathered its data from multiple sources, including Gallup surveys and FBI crime reports.
The Council on Criminal Justice said the findings of its year-end crime trends report contrast with the drastic reduction in crime in 2025, which researchers say could make it one of the safest years in more than a century.
Killings nationwide have plummeted by 44% since their most recent peak in 2021. If the trend holds, the homicide rate could sink to four per 100,000 residents when the FBI releases its annual “Reported Crimes in the Nation” report in the fall.
The Council on Criminal Justice said that would be the lowest documented homicide rate since 1900.
For 2024, the last full year of crime data the FBI has available, violent crime fell by almost 5% nationwide. Every major violent offense — homicides, rapes, robberies and assaults — showed declines, as did property crimes such as burglaries.
Researchers said a falling homicide rate does not convince Americans that crime is less of a problem.
Personal experiences with crime make people more likely to believe crime is on the rise.
The study found that higher rates of household victimization, or whether a family member was a crime victim, weighed heavily into how people perceived the level of crime and their fear of it.
Tio Hardiman, the executive director of Violence Interrupters in Chicago, said that is why crime concerns in historically rougher neighborhoods can be overshadowed when officials rely on city-level statistics to tout public safety improvements.
For example, he said Chicago’s South Side crime rates run counter to the “stellar” drop in violence the city as a whole documented last year.
Those parts of town also have a culture of violence that affects how people perceive their own safety, he said, as illegal guns are prevalent and raise the stakes on simple disagreements.
For people living outside those areas, Mr. Hardiman said, a neighborhood’s ugliest moments often find a way onto everyone’s social media feeds.
“Every time you open up social media, you see a fight where you have 20 young men beating up one or two guys or stomping people out or beating up women — you name it,” Mr. Hardiman said. “Social media plays one of the strongest roles ever when it comes down to the perceptions of violence.”
Witnessing an act of shoplifting or other forms of property crime led people to believe crime was up, the report said, regardless of local police statistics on how frequently those crimes occurred.
Further, residents of poorer neighborhoods or areas with higher youth populations had elevated fears of crime, the study said.
Conversely, those who were more optimistic about the economy and their own financial situations tended to believe crime was declining or stable.
Men were more likely than women to believe that crime was holding steady or declining locally and nationally, the report said. Men were also less likely to be fearful about walking alone at night.
The nonprofit said people with conservative political views were slightly more prone to believing crime was on the rise, but the overall effect of political ideologies on crime perceptions was limited.
Better approval ratings for the president and Congress correlated with a perception that crime was staying the same or declining.
“Public concerns about crime do not always reflect changes in crime alone,” the report says. “Crime concerns may also be shaped by broader social anxieties and economic conditions. Future research should continue to explore these relationships and what specific offenses the public are concerned about.”